The ruling in the case between China and the Philippines over competing claims in the South China Sea will strain relations between Manila and Beijing, but it’ll also impact Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as threatening ASEAN unity.
Looking back in the future, observers of the escalating tensions in the South China Sea will point to 2012 as the pivotal year for the maritime boundary disputes between China and Taiwan and five Southeast Asian states in the South China Sea. That was the year that China coercively gained control of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines, and for the first time, ASEAN foreign ministers failed to issue a joint statement at the end of their meeting due to disuniting disagreements over whether the South China Sea should even be mentioned.
Now the dispute, which will soon be ruled on by the United Nations Arbitration Panel under the Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) threatens to not only exacerbate tensions between Manila and Beijing, but could also cause collateral benefit and damage to the other countries with competing maritime boundary and territorial claims.
Before the 2012 setbacks, the Aquino administration showed no signs of moving beyond the Philippines’ approach of being the loudest and most persistent voice in ASEAN for the Association to take a stronger line on these disputes and China’s actions in the South China Sea.
