Old Politics in PH

Position Trader

A position trader is someone who holds a position, usually stocks, for the long term; from weeks to months, even years. They are less concerned with short-term fluctuations and the news of the day unless it impacts the big picture behind the stock they are trading. Position traders do not trade actively and the fewer trades they make in a year, the closer they are to becoming buy-and-hold long-term investors.

Source: Investopedia Position Trader

Swing Trader

Swing trading has been described as a kind of fundamental trading in which positions are held for longer than a single day. Most fundamentalists are actually swing traders since changes in corporate fundamentals generally require several days or even a week to cause sufficient price movement to renders a reasonable profit.

Source: Investopedia

Cohn Shocker

Source: Market Pulse
By: Stephen Innes
Head of Trading APAC at OANDA

Cohn Shocker
The morning Whitehouse shocker is that Gary Cohn is resigning as head of the White House’s National Economic Council. His resignation increased the risk tenfold that President Trump will follow through with far-reaching trade tariffs given that Cohn was said to be remaining in his role to convince Trump to reverse his trade policy views, or at least temper them.
Predictably USDJPY is wearing the initial brunt of the move, and in general, the Cohn announcement is reversing the positive risk sentiment from the unexpected news from North Korea after reports that North Korea is open to denuclearisation if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.
While the world appears to be in a safer place this morning due to the denuclearisation olive branch offered by North Korea, the market is no less safe from the wrath of Trump’s trade policies.

Gold Prices
Gold was trading positively overnight on the back of the softer USD trend BS continues to perform exceptionally well on that narrative. But prices will remain firmly supported on the tariff tail risks from Cohn departure as the tariff gambit hits the market again with blunt force.

Oil Prices
What goes up must come down or the opposite in the case of US oil inventories data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a considerable build of 5.661 million barrels for the week ending March 2, e doubling up analysts expectations. Early trade WTI prices remain tentatively supported by the weaker dollar. But with the overhang from the Cohn resignation yet to filter through market’s, risk aversion could see OIl prices move lower during today session.
Overnight long USD hedges were unwound as on the news from South Korea that North Korea was willing to hold talks with the United States on denuclearisation

Currency Markets
Japanese Yen
A bit of a topsy-turvy 24 hours for USDJPY spiked on the Korea headlines from 105.90 towards 106.40, which was pips shy of the significant 106.50 support. But is back plumbing the depths this morning as Tariffs are back in play on the back of Cohn’s resignation.
US politics is an absolute mess inspiring little confidence in the President, and this real-life political melodrama unfolds it hard to avoid parallels with Tumps for TV show The Apprentice.

The Malaysian Ringgit
Decision day for the BNM but the market is expecting few if any fireworks. Regional currency sentiment received a boost after surprising news that North Korea is open to denuclearisation if the safety of its regime is guaranteed.
The prospect of trade tariffs is raising their ugly head again, but when all is said and done, these tit-for-tat tariffs are not significant enough factor to weigh on MYR sentiment let alone derail the buoyant global growth narrative.

GBP/USD – British Pound Edges Higher, Investors Eye ADP Employment Report

Source: Market Pulse
By: Kenny Fisher
Currency Analyst at Market Pulse

The British pound has posted gains on Tuesday, continuing the upward movement seen on Monday. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3884, up 0.26% on the day. In economic news, there are no major indicators in the US or the UK. In the US, Factory Orders were unexpectedly soft, with a decline of 1.4%. This was well short of the estimate of -0.4%. On Wednesday, the US releases ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.

Tensions are growing between London and Brussels as the Brexit deadline of March 2019 looms ever closer. Last week, there were sharp exchanges between the two sides after the EU releases a draft of the legal framework of the Brexit agreement. On Friday, Prime Minister May outlined her vision of relations between the EU and Britain after Brexit. May sought to lower the recent sharp rhetoric surrounding Brexit, saying that both sides needed to show flexibility in order to reach an agreement. May said that she was seeking a free trade agreement with the EU that included financial services. The response from Brussels has been lukewarm, with some policymakers saying that Britain continues to operate under the illusion that it can leave the club but still enjoy the benefits.

Over in the US, the “tariff tussle” shows no sign of being resolved anytime soon. US President Trump appears set on applying stiff tariffs on steel imports, much to the consternation of the European Union and other US trading partners. However, there is plenty of domestic opposition to Trump’s plan, as Republican lawmakers, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have come out strongly against the move. If Trump doesn’t back down, the Republicans could even resort to legislation to limit Trump’s authority on tariffs. The announcement of the tariffs last week sent the dollar broadly lower, and if the tariffs are introduced, negative investor sentiment could send the greenback to lower levels.

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen Ticks Higher, GDP Next

By: Kenny Fisher
Currency Analyst at Market Pulse

The Japanese yen has posted small gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 106.17, down 0.03% on the day. On the release front, there are no Japanese indicators on the schedule. In the US, Factory Orders were unexpectedly soft, with a decline of 1.4%. This was well short of the estimate of -0.4%. On Wednesday, the US releases ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Japan publishes Final GDP.

The Japanese yen continues to look strong, and last week, the dollar dropped close to the 105 line, its lowest level since early November. The yen received a boost on Friday, as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the BoJ would consider exiting from its ultra-accommodative monetary policy if its inflation target of around 2020 was reached in early 2020. Kuroda’s remarks were unusual in that they mentioned a possible “exit” from its stimulus program, and this caught the markets off guard. The BoJ has been lagging behind the Fed and other central banks in winding up stimulus, but Kuroda added that the Bank would normalize policy if “economic conditions become favorable and our price target is achieved”. Although inflation remains well below target, any further hints about normalization from the BoJ could strengthen the yen.

The “tariff tussle” shows no sign of being resolved anytime soon. US President Trump appears set on applying stiff tariffs on steel imports, much to the consternation of the European Union and other US trading partners. However, there is plenty of domestic opposition to Trump’s plan, as Republican lawmakers, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have come out strongly against the move. If Trump doesn’t back down, the Republicans could even resort to legislation to limit Trump’s authority on tariffs. The announcement of the tariffs last week bolstered the yen, and if the tariffs are introduced, negative investor sentiment could send the greenback to lower levels

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20180306/usdjpy-japanese-yen-ticks-higher-gdp-next/

Election Result Could Have Significant Meaning For Italy’s Relationship With EU

Italy’s election result showed a seismic shift in the country’s political scene with both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and right-wing Lega party seeing strong gains in the vote Sunday.Meanwhile, parties like Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) fell short of expectations, prompting PD leader and former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to resign.Italy’s former Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi di Sant’Agata told CNBC Monday that the vote had “significant meaning” for Italy’s relationship with its neighbors.”It’s been a clear indication that the majority of Italian voters want a change. They want a change that is significant in relation to a number of issues which are considered a high-priority now by at least 60 percent, and perhaps more, of Italian voters.”

Source: https://www.marketpulse.com/20180306/election-result-could-have-significant-meaning-for-italys-relationship-with-eu/

Marketpulse: EU Targeting Iconic US Brands in Retaliation to Trump Tariffs

The European Commission has reportedly proposed tariffs of 25 percent on imports of U.S. steel, clothing and other industrial goods in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum.The executive arm of the European Union reportedly plans to target $3.5 billion of goods imported from the U.S., including T-shirts, whisky, motorcycles and ladders, if Trump decides to implement international duties on steel and aluminum.The list of goods was revealed in a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday, which cited a draft list drawn up by the commission. According to the report, the commission discussed the retaliatory levy on U.S. goods with representatives of EU governments on Monday evening

Investopedia: Trump Faces Pushback on Tariffs but Says He Will Not Back Down

U.S. President Donald Trump faced growing pressure on Monday from political and diplomatic allies as well as U.S. companies urging him to pull back from proposed steel and aluminum tariffs, although he said he would stick to his guns.

Inside the White House, there still appeared to be confusion about the timing and extent of the planned tariffs, which would hit allies like Canada and Mexico hard.

Efforts by Trump and U.S. trade negotiators to link the NAFTA trade pact talks to the duties received short shrift from Ottawa and Mexico City.

Leading Republicans turned up the pressure on Trump, with House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan leading the charge. Ryan's home state of Wisconsin would be hit by proposed European counter-measures on Harley-Davidson Inc motorbikes.

Representative Kevin Brady, another top House Republican, called on Trump not to hit America's closest allies.

Business leaders are pressing for a meeting with Trump to brief him on the negative repercussions of the tariffs on companies that use steel and aluminum, a source familiar with the matter said.

A meeting had not yet been set up, the source said. The White House had no comment.

The planned tariffs have roiled world stock markets as investors worried about the prospect of an escalating trade war that would derail global economic growth. Stocks across the globe rose on Monday, however, after four days in decline as investors saw the tariff threats as a U.S. negotiating tactic and not a done deal and as pressure grew on Trump to back off.

"We're not backing down," Trump said during a White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "I don't think you're going to have a trade war," he added, without elaborating.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Trump on Monday to tell him the tariffs would be an impediment to talks on updating NAFTA, a Canadian government official said.

Canada is the single largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States. In the call, Trudeau "forcefully defended" Canadian workers and industries, said the official, describing the conversation as constructive.

Earlier comments from Trump had stoked talk of a global trade war as he described them as easy to win and issued a threat to German carmakers. One of those, BMW, runs a plant in the United States that is the largest single autos exporter in the country and has created thousands of jobs.

Most responses to Trump's proposed tariffs have been targeted. The European Union said it would hit Harleys, bourbon and jeans, iconic American products. It did not threaten to ramp up the issue.

China has been largely mum, urging caution, and both Canada and Mexico have stressed the targeted nature of any response.

STRESSES INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE?

Trump was expected to finalize the planned tariffs later in the week, although some observers familiar with the process said it could occur next week. The initial announcement by Trump last week came as a surprise.

The United States, Mexico and Canada have been holding talks over changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement, a pact that Trump has threatened to abandon.

Six months of tense talks have produced little in the way of progress and a move by Washington to link the steel and aluminum tariffs to progress on NAFTA was rebuffed by Canada and Mexico.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also attempted to drive a wedge between Canada and Mexico when he suggested the United States would be willing to hold bilateral, rather than trilateral talks. The two countries again stood firm.

In Washington, aides scrambled to meet Trump’s demand for the paperwork to be completed for a formal announcement. The exact timing was unclear as the tariff documentation had to be drafted and go through a variety of reviews, a process that takes days, an administration official said.

There was always a chance that Trump ”could amend his initial announcement” to take account of the concerns expressed about it, said a source familiar with the internal debate at the White House.

TRUMP'S TRADE TRAIL

Trump has frequently talked tough on trade, although his actions have not always matched his words. On his first day in office in January 2017, he withdrew from the 14-nation Trans Pacific Partnership agreement, a deal that was dead on arrival in the U.S. Congress in any case.

He has frequently tweeted and said that he would pull out of NAFTA, which he has called a jobs killer. But a year after taking office, the 1994 deal remains intact.

Trump has approved a series of small-scale trade actions, of which the steel and aluminum duties would be a part. Taken together with actions on washing machines and solar panels, the proposed move accounts for just 4.1 percent of U.S. imports. In terms of global trade, they are just 0.6 percent, investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report.

The head of the World Trade Organization warned of a real risk of triggering an escalation of global trade barriers and a deep recession, even as financial markets and many economists started to discount the risk of a global crisis.

"We must make every effort to avoid the fall of the first dominoes. There is still time," WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo told the heads of WTO delegations at a closed-door meeting in Geneva.

(Additional reporting by Susan Heavey, Steve Holland, Eric Walsh and Susan Heavey in Washington, Adriana Barrera, Sharay Angulo, Lesley Wroughton and David Ljunggren in Mexico City, Rodrigo Campos in New York and Tom Miles in Geneva; Writing by Frances Kerry and David Chance; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Peter Cooney)

Read more: Trump Faces Pushback on Tariffs but Says He Will Not Back Down | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/partner/reuters/trump-faces-pushback-tariffs-says-he-will-not-back-down/#ixzz58z5UjMlR
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Dow down for fifth straight day as trade war fear weighs

Full Article: Investing.com
By: Ankur Banerjee and Sruthi Shankar
Reuters

(Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the fifth straight day on Monday as concerns about a global trade war following President Donald Trump's threat to impose hefty tariffs kept investors on the edge.

Trump on Monday appeared to suggest that Canada and Mexico could win exemptions to the planned sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum if the two countries sign a new NAFTA trade deal and take other steps.

The S&P 500 ended another rocky week on an upbeat note on Friday, but major indexes still posted their worst week of losses since early February after Trump promised tariffs on aluminum and steel and talked bullishly about "winning" a trade war economists say could decimate growth.

"The President just tweeted a while ago, sounding tough on trade with Canada and Mexico," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida.

"Some of it will get passed on to consumers in terms of higher prices ... It'll add a little bit to inflation. But I think it's more an uncertainty," Brown added.

Eight of 11 S&P 500 indexes were lower on Monday, led by financials (SPSY) and information technology (SPLRCT).

World stocks and emerging markets fell for the fifth straight day on Monday, with investors also worrying that Italian voters had flocked to anti-establishment and far-right groups in record numbers and had delivered a hung parliament.

Investors dumped stocks in favor of traditional safe havens including gold and the Japanese yen, with gold touching a near one-week high on Monday.

"Markets' inability to regain confidence is likely to keep stocks defensive," First Standard Financial Chief Market Economist Peter Cardillo said.

At 9:41 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) was down 64.93 points, or 0.26 percent, at 24,473.13, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 6.76 points, or 0.251184 percent, at 2,684.49 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was down 20.10 points, or 0.28 percent, at 7,237.76.

Shares in chipmaker Qualcomm (O:QCOM) dipped 1.6 percent after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) ordered the company to postpone an annual shareholder meeting, giving it more time to resist efforts by Broadcom Ltd (O:AVGO) to force through a $117 billion merger.

Shares of Clearside Biomedical (O:CLSD) jumped 55 percent after the drug developer's eye drug met the main goal in a late-stage study, while Dermira (O:DERM) plunged 60 percent after the company abandoned its acne drug.

Europe's second-biggest insurer XL Group Ltd (N:XL) rose 30 percent after being acquired by France's AXA (PA:AXAF) for $15.3 billion.